🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."